The rapid urbanization in China has been associated with a growing hunger for energy consumption and steadily-increasing COdos emissions. In this paper, an integrated system dynamics model composed of four sub-models is developed to simulate the urbanization and energy consumption in China from 1998 to 2050. Three scenarios are provided: accelerated economic development, emission reduction constraint, and low-carbon oriented. The result reveals that rapid economic growth and sufficient energy supply will foster China’s urbanization in all three scenarios. Under the low carbon transition scenario, China’s urbanization rate is expected to reach % in 2050, both reducing carbon emissions and promoting eco-friendly development. All three scenarios witness a dramatic growth of residential energy consumption and a steady increase of industrial energy consumption. China still has a long way to achieve the low-carbon transition goal. China should promote renewable resources and energy, pursue a low-carbon lifestyle, and reduce energy intensity over the next few decades.
Inclusion
There is a long and rich history of research exploring the association between energy demand and urbanization 1,2,3 . Energy consumption, and its socioeconomic and environmental impacts, have imposed a critical influence on urban sustainability 1 . At the same time, the effects of urbanization on energy consumption vary across scales and over countries 4,5,6 . China’s dramatic urbanization and the associated energy demand as well as the pressure of CO2 emitted by such energy consumption is a major global scientific issue since this century 7,8,9 . Previous research in China has often focused on a specific field or aspect, such as urbanization theory 10 , urbanization procedure 11 , energy policy 12 , energy growth 13 , CO2 emission 14 , climate change 15 , and public health 16 .
System dynamics model regarding urbanization less than times restrictions during the Asia
Regardless if urban extension carry out speed time usage 17,18,19 , the brand new automotive fuel play with is likely to correlate negatively with the urbanization peak due to economic climates off measure 20,21,twenty two . Such as, much more urbanized areas within the Canada ate lower for every single capita energy 23 . Likewise, complete time use of outlying households is actually koreancupid indir bigger than that metropolitan properties, because more 85% off outlying households fool around with unproductive solid-fuel twenty four . Considering Customer Data Program, 275 cities globally have fun with hydropower, 189 urban centers have fun with piece of cake energy, and 184 urban centers explore solar photovoltaic fuel. About 100 locations have fun with renewable energy to reach 70% away from electricity, such as Seattle, Oslo, Vancouver, and you will Nairobi. In america, 58 locations, in addition to Atlanta and you may San diego, have intends to changeover to help you one hundred% neat and renewable power. On the present technology and energy sites, it is likely to go one hundred% renewable energy likewise have globally and you may get to no carbon dioxide emissions because of the 2025. The worldwide power age bracket structure for the 2050 is anticipated just like the lower than: solar power solar pv (69%), wind strength (18%), hydropower (8%), and you may biomass (2%), having opportunity shops batteries level 29% regarding energy consult. It is listed that of one’s earth’s premier dams and you can electricity vegetation can be found in Asia, if you are Yunnan State and you will Guizhou State lead 31% out-of China’s hydropower. New Jinsha Lake by yourself provides a good 9-top dam. New energy from these hydropower was privately transmitted to Guangdong and Hong kong from large-voltage grid. As a result of the numerous hydropower resources readily available for cooling, Guizhou Province has recently become China’s most crucial data cardiovascular system legs. For the 2018, Apple Corporation founded the brand new iCloud studies cardio when you look at the Guizhou. Pretty much every higher They team out of China features created data locations within the Guizhou, including Alibaba, Huawei, and you may China Mobile.
Urbanization is a non-linear open complex system, with multiple subsystems dynamically interacting with each other 25,26,27 . Dramatic urbanization under energy constraints is challenging for China, which has topped all the countries in population, energy consumption (since 2010), and CO2 emissions (since 2008) 27 . To systematically examine the causality mechanism between energy consumption and urbanization, the SD (system dynamics) model has been widely used in the domains such as energy consumption 28 , energy policy 29,30 , energy efficiency 31 , carbon emission 32,33 , and energy industry 34,35 . The SD model, Monte Carlo simulation, and Hornberger-Spear-Young (HSY) algorithm were employed to analyze the urbanization patterns with the limit of energy and environmental resources 36 . In addition, the baseline scenario was simulated from 2005 to 2020 using the SD model of urbanization and the energy consumption complex system 28 . The SD model was also developed using the STELLA platform to model the energy consumption and CO2 emission trends 33 . To dynamically predict future urban development trends under various scenarios has very important scientific values for the policy formulation.